Iran's Strategy and the Path to Escalation: Insights from Suzanne Maloney
Iran expert Suzanne Maloney discusses the strategic patience following Haniyeh’s assassination and emphasizes the need for diplomacy to prevent Middle East escalation.
In a recent interview with Unholy, Suzanne Maloney, a leading expert on Iran and the director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, provided crucial insights into the current geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. With tensions rising following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the world is watching and waiting for Iran's response. Maloney's analysis offers a deeper understanding of Iran's strategic calculus and its implications for Israel and the broader region.
There is a sense of waiting in Israel for Iran’s response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. What’s your take on why there hasn’t been an immediate retaliation?
״I'm less surprised than many others. Iran typically bides its time in these situations. If we look back at past events, such as the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in January 2020, Iran's responses are rarely immediate. The delay doesn’t mean we are out of the woods yet. The likelihood is that Iran will retaliate, but it may not be in the manner or timeframe that many are expecting״
Given that Hezbollah also suffered a significant loss, do you see a coordinated response between Iran and Hezbollah? How might this play out?
״Iran and Hezbollah are in full solidarity and closely coordinate their actions. However, Hezbollah’s recent loss might drive a more immediate response from them, potentially putting Iran in a position where they don’t have to take direct action immediately. Over the years, Iran has frequently engaged Israel through its proxies, with Hezbollah being the most significant among them. The dynamics between Iran and Hezbollah in this context will be crucial in shaping the nature of the retaliation.״
Some argue that Hezbollah operates with a degree of independence from Tehran. What’s your view on their relationship?
״While Hezbollah has a level of operational independence, it is still very much a part of Iran’s broader strategy. Iran provides the guidance and strategic direction, while Hezbollah acts as a key proxy in the region. Their relationship is symbiotic, but Tehran holds the reins on the major decisions.״
There’s been discussion about Iran’s long-term strategy, particularly the ‘ring of fire’ surrounding Israel. What does Iran ultimately aim to achieve?
״Iran's long-term strategy has been to encircle Israel with hostile forces, often referred to as the ‘ring of fire.’ This strategy aims to apply continuous pressure on Israel, weakening its security and international standing. Since October 7th, Iran has likely seen a greater opportunity to capitalize on Israel’s current vulnerabilities, possibly pushing them toward more direct engagement than before. However, their ultimate goal remains to destabilize Israel through indirect means while avoiding a full-scale war.״
What actions should Israel and its allies take in response to this strategy?
״The first and most critical step is to achieve a ceasefire. As long as the conflict continues, Iran benefits from the chaos. Beyond that, there needs to be a renewed strategic effort to diplomatically isolate Iran and apply consistent pressure on Tehran. This will not be easy, especially given the current global dynamics, but it is essential to prevent further escalation and to counter Iran's expanding influence in the region.״
Suzanne Maloney’s insights underscore the complexity and danger of the current situation in the Middle East. Iran’s strategic patience and reliance on proxies like Hezbollah represent significant challenges for Israel and its allies. As the region teeters on the brink of further escalation, the importance of strategic diplomacy and a strong, coordinated response cannot be overstated. The stakes are high, and the path forward will require careful navigation to avoid a broader conflict.
The quotes were edited for clarity,